Feb 2
Where did January go? A fun start to the new year, a short trip to New York, and a couple of snow days and all of a sudden it was February! I’m going to try to keep track of statistics for Sooke at the end of each month and post them here so you can follow along. Along with the numbers, I’ll give you my opinion of what the vibe is like in the market and what the other REALTORS® are saying. Read more
Flaherty Puts The Squeeze On Mortgages
Following a couple months of speculation, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty brought in some new regulations designed to tighten up lending practices and cool off the housing market in Canada. The government didn’t go so far as to reduce maximum amortization from 35 to 30 years, or increase minimum down payment requirements higher than 5%, but did take the following three actions:
The reader needs to bear in mind that the above rules are for CMHC-insured mortgages only. Private insurers like Genworth and AIG Guaranty may be more flexible. Mortgage insurance is mandated on all mortgage loans in excess of 80% loan to value ratio, which offers the lender protection should the borrower default. This way, lenders are able to offer borrowers lower rates because they do not have to compensate for the additional risk of a high-ratio mortgage.
Also, most lenders qualify a buyer on a 3- or 4-year fixed rate already when applying for a variable rate mortgage, so this won’t be a huge change for most institutions.
The new rules are set to come into force April 19th. I would expect a surge in activities in the market as buyers and investors try to get in under the deadline, even though most residential, owner-occupier borrowers won’t be too affected by the changes. All they will hear is “harder to get a mortgage” and they’ll rush out to get pre-qualified and then go shopping.
-Tim Ayres – Sooke Real Estate Professional
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Jan 15
An initiative we started late last year at the Victoria Real Estate Board is giving us some excellent data on market trends in the Victoria BC real estate market. As a director and chair of a Communications Task Force, I helped devise a market survey that is sent out via email at the end of the month to each Victoria-area REALTOR® who sold a house to a buyer that month.
The data that comes in is an invaluable snapshot of the situation for the average agent ‘on the street’ as to where the buyers are coming from, what they’re buying, and other interesting data.
I just received this past month’s results this morning. Some interesting facts:
I’ll continue to post this information on a monthly basis, as it is a “real world” snapshot of activity in our marketplace. You can read the full survey results here.
If you have any questions about buying or selling real estate, I am always available to chat. Call me any time, directly, at 250-885-0512, email Tim@TimAyres.ca, or find me on Twitter.
If 2010 is the year to buy your first home, I invite you to an informative, free seminar on February 9. Hear from a financial planner, mortgage broker, and me about creating a plan to save for a down payment, get a good mortgage and find a great home. More details and sign-up can be found at TimAyres.ca/seminars
-Tim Ayres – Sooke Real Estate Professional
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Call your REALTOR®, and list it now.
Of course, not every home is going to sell overnight, but supply of good, moderately-priced homes is tight, and seems only to be getting tighter. I’ve been tracking listings of single family homes in Sooke, Langford, and Colwood for a client of mine. Check out this spreadsheet (I’ll keep updating it, so feel free to bookmark it). Listings are up a little bit this week, but often conditions come off on Fridays, so you can expect quite a few drop off before the week is out.
From a days on market standpoint, I’m simply amazed at how quickly well-priced, mid-market homes are selling. Out of all sales (80 total) in Langford, since September 1, the average time to sell is 36 days. There were a few 100+ days on market listings that drag the average up a little. To better illustrate my point, there were fully 32 single family homes that sold in 14 days or less. Keeping in mind that conditions on an offer usually take a week or longer, you can comfortably assume that homes that sell in 14 days or less have an accepted offer within a week.
During the same period, it seems that most of the core areas of greater Victoria are experiencing similar time to sell. Next door, Colwood had an average of 45 days on the market, with 31 sales. The central core of Victoria (Victoria, Saanich, Esquimalt, Oak Bay) saw 307 homes sell in an average of 36 days.
Interestingly, Sooke, which has much more moderate prices, had 36 sales in an average of 76 days on market. This is not unexpected – Sooke’s market has always been a little slower than the rest of greater Victoria. Still – well priced, mid-market homes are selling quickly in Sooke.
At a time of year when things are usually expected to start slowing down, this market is as busy as ever. If you’re thinking of selling your home, now would be a very, very good time. There is still time to move before Christmas, or start the new year off in a new home.
I’m always available to answer questions, run stats, and of course I’d love to evaluate your home and show you my marketing plan. I can be reached at 250-885-0512, Tim@TimAyres.ca, or you can fill in my contact form.
-Tim Ayres – Sooke Real Estate Professional
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What the hell? I leave the Island for 10 days and it falls apart on me?
I got back on late Sunday night from a week in Mexico to attend my cousin’s wedding and generally unplug from the world for awhile. On that note, an all-inclusive resort with 40 friends and family and really expensive internet connections is a great stress reliever. Before that I spent a couple days on the mainland with (different) friends and (same) family to ring in the new year (kinda lame) and go skating at Richmond’s fabulous new Olympic Speedskating Oval (totally sweet).
So, being unplugged for a week (well, that and not being geographically co-located with the weather system) caused me to miss most of the weather chaos. It would suck to live in Port Renfrew about now, what with the main highway being washed out and all. Sooke Road (aka Provincial Highway 14), for those not in the know, is a complete disaster all the way along. Sooke Potholes no longer refers to the swimming hole on the Sooke River, but I bet there are some on the road big enough to swim in. I managed to ruin a perfectly good rim and tire on my car by hitting a huge one on Tuesday evening. Mainroad Contracting is going to get a nice letter.
Tonight, the kind folks from the Provincial Emergency Program were at the Sooke Council Chambers to offer information and applications to residents who suffered uninsured damage to their homes during 6-8 January, 2009.
Can somebody please explain to me why gas prices have increased by $0.15 while oil prices have decreased to below $40/bbl again? Somebody is gouging, I don’t care what they say.
Last night I attended, with the other directors of the Victoria Real Estate Board, the Canadian Home Builders Association Crystal Ball event, which featured several economists and our Board President, Chris Markham, giving their outlook on the economy and the housing markets for 2009. It was a good event, but obviously a heavy topic. I can’t imagine too many home builders that are thrilled about the recent slowdown in real estate sales.
Über-pessimist economist David Hobden of Central 1 Credit Union gave a grim forecast for 2009 (and 2010 somewhat), stating that the Island and Coast region are already in recession, and will remain so. He forecasts housing value to drop by 10 per cent in 2009. Hobden appeared to want to be anywhere but in that room last night, and his body language screamed doom, gloom, and defeat – it was painful to watch.
Jock Finlayson, BC Business Council executive vice president of policy was slightly more optimistic, and a much better speaker. He delivered his not-exactly-rosy forecast with levity and looked as if he enjoyed informing the room, which he had laughing on many occasions – and his visuals were way easier to read and understand. Finlayson explained that 2009 will be a difficult year, but by mid-year, credit conditions that are slowing the business cycle should improve, along with the U.S. economy, and 2010 should be a much better year. He forecasts housing starts (new construction) to be down by 40 or 50 per cent. Finlayson did a great job of explaining where all this mess came from and how Canada is better positioned to spend its way out of this recession via deficit budgets. Another positive point came in the fact that job losses will not likely be as sharp as in previous recessions because the demographics of recent years (families having fewer children and later in life, and people nearing retirement) will keep heavy losses in check – I’m sure you realize how tight labour markets have been up until a few months ago.
Victoria Real Estate Board 2009 President Chris Markham explained that while sales are slowing, it’s hard to compare 2008 to 2007 because it was an exceptionally strong year. This was emphasized by CMHC market analyst Travis Archibald showing that 2008 sales were actually very close to the 15-year average. The same goes for housing starts. They fell by a large percentage in 2008 over 2007, but are in-line with the historical averages. CMHC will be releasing its full outlook next month.
I think that Vancouver Island, and in particular, Victoria will fare better than the rest of the province, as we have a diversified economy, and stable major employers such as government and military. As for housing, it’s opportunity time out there. Buyers have their choice of many properties, and many would-be first-time buyers from the last few years, priced out by the rapidly increasing prices, will be looking at re-entering the hunt.
So, all in all, maybe the Island isn’t falling apart exactly, and I’m glad to be back. I’m optimistic about 2009, and we’re all in this together, so you might as well be optimistic too.
It’s all you can do.
-Tim Ayres – Sooke Real Estate Professional
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Nov 6
Sunriver Estates
Driving home from a shift at Royal LePage’s Mayfair Mall kiosk last night, I heard a radio ad on CFAX 1070 for Sunriver Estates.
They are offering a “builder’s coupon” discount of $15,000 for purchasers. The popular planned community along the Sooke River is obviously experiencing a slowdown in sales like everyone else, so this is a great time to head on out and have a look. The ad mentioned getting a $369,000 brand new home for $354,000. It wasn’t clear from the ad whether this applied only to that plan or to any plan. The discount can be taken off the price or used for upgrades or appliance packages.
There are also 12 existing homes for sale in Sunriver, ranging from $349,900 to $500,000. Click the following link to view these Sunriver Estates homes for sale
If you are considering a new or resale home in Sunriver Estates and would like to be represented by an experienced agent, give me a call at 250-885-0512, fill in my contact form, or shoot me an e-mail at Tim@TimAyres.ca. My services are available to you, the buyer, at no cost; REALTORS® are paid by the seller.
-Tim Ayres – Sooke Real Estate Professional
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Nov 5
October 2008, personified. (Pumpkinified?)
The stock markets crashed. Billions were pulled out of mutual funds. Banks were bailed out. We were all subjected to hearing Sarah Palin speak. And now this reminder of the worst month in history, ever ™.
The monthly real estate statistics from the Victoria Real Estate Board were (mercifully) delayed by a few days due to the final changeover from our old MLS system (Quest’s Ambiance) to our new MLS System (Tarasoft’s Matrix). When I saw the numbers I thought maybe there was a problem with the software. Sadly, no.
In the first week of October, when the world seemed to be coming to an end, it scared the daylights out of everyone. Can you blame anyone for not wanting to contemplate a major purchase when the words recession and depression are being bandied about left, right and centre by the news media?
Now, it’s not fair to blame the media, although they certainly didn’t help the situation. People were scared, and they still are, although I’d suspect less so now that it seems that the world is taking steps to get the economy back on track, and economist after economist and expert-of-this after expert-of-that has reassured us that Canada, and in particular British Columbia, is in better shape than many areas to weather this storm. Thanks to our boring banks for that.
The point is that our market fundamentals are still sound. Household debt is overall manageable, mortgage rates are low and expected to remain that way, the number of mortgages in arrears is the lowest in the country. We still have interprovincial migration, job growth, low unemployment, and remain the retirement capital of Canada.
I truly believe that we’ve already seen the most of the decline in our real estate market here in Sooke and Victoria. The professional world has already stopped panic-selling their investments, and once the consumer world catches on to the fact that this isn’t the end of the world, I think we’ll start to see stability in the marketplace. Buyers that had been sidelined essentially by fear alone will come out of the woodwork and we’ll have a healthy balanced market come the spring. We won’t see crazy price increases month-to-month, but that’s a good thing.
It really is a good time time to buy – as long as you’re planning to live in your home for a minimum of 3-5 years (good advice in any market). Interest rates are low, and sellers are a little more willing to be flexible on their prices. Get out there and make some offers!
Here is the press release, and related graphs courtesy the Victoria Real Estate Board:
The number of property sales throughout Greater Victoria declined in October while prices remained stable.
A total of 316 homes and other properties sold in October through the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) down from the 512 sales in September. There were 708 sales in October of last year. The number of properties available for sale at the end of October was 4,680. That represents a 41 per cent increase compared to October of last year but a slight decline from the 4,754 properties available for sale at the end of September.
Victoria Real Estate Board President, Tony Joe, says despite the decline in the number of sales, it is important to keep the market activity in context. “The last six years have seen extraordinary growth. Last year in particular was truly exceptional both in terms of sales and prices so comparisons must be made with care. A more realistic comparison would be with 1998 — a year in which sales and inventory levels were comparable to today and a time when the market was considered to be strong and stable.” Joe noted there has been a total of 6,012 sales in the first ten months of this year compared to 4,571 in the corresponding period in 1998. There were 4,057 active listings at the end of October, 1998
The average price of single family homes in Greater Victoria last month was $565,741, up from $549,284 in September; the six-month average was $574,848 though the median price in October was considerably lower at $495,000. There were seven single family homes that sold for over $1 million in October, including two in Oak Bay, one of which sold for between $2 million and $3 million.
The average price of all townhomes sold last month was $389,731, down from $405,287 in September; the six month average was $425,866. The median price in October was $369,500. The overall average price for condominiums at $323,028 last month was up from $319,562 in September. The average for the last six months was $316,644. The median price for condominiums in October was $280,000.
MLS® sales last month included 184 single family homes, 76 condominiums, 26 townhomes and eight manufactured homes.
Summary Report and Graphs
Monthly Sales Summary
Average Selling Price Graphs
Active Listings, New Listings and Sales Graphs
Do you have any questions on buying or selling in today’s market? Interested in creative marketing methods to make your home stand out from the crowd? Fill in my contact form, give me a call at 250-885-0512, or e-mail me at Tim@TimAyres.ca and I’d love to meet you for coffee.
-Tim Ayres – Sooke Real Estate Professional
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Year-end and December 2007 Statistics Released
The Victoria Real Estate Board has released the December 2007 and year-end statistics:
Real Estate Records Broken in 2007
The value of all property transactions through the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) hit a new record of over $4.1 billion in 2007, up from $3.3 billion in 2006. The value of single family home sales was over $2.5 billion while the value of condominium sales was over $756 million. Victoria Real Estate Board President Tony Joe noted that both sales and prices for all major property types increased last year. “Last year was another exceptional year for the local real estate market. The total number of sales increased over 12 per cent while the overall average price for single family homes rose 8.5 per cent; the average for condominiums rose over 11 per cent and the average for townhomes rose 10.5 per cent,” said Joe.
Meantime, the sale of 14 single family homes in Greater Victoria over $1 million pushed the average price to a new record high of $624,450 last month [Note: The sale of an island completed last month for $7 M, which would have skewed the average considerably - Tim] ; the median price, however, was considerably lower at $536,000. “It’s always important to bear in mind that the average price in a given month can often be significantly affected by the sale of high-priced homes,” noted Joe. The six-month average for single family homes in December was $581,419.
The average price of all condominiums sold in December was $332,793; the average for the last six months was $319,980. The median was again lower at $292,900. The average price for townhomes sold last month was $445,960; the average for the last six-months was $415,648. The median price was $387,900.
There were 408 MLS® sales last month, up from 385 sales in December of last year. There were 623 sales in November. Sales last month included 202 single family homes, 120 condominiums, 46 townhomes and 8 manufactured homes.
There were 2,799 properties listed for sale on the MLS® system at the end of last month, up from the 2,650 properties in the same month a year ago.
Summary Report and Graphs
Monthly Sales Summary
Average Selling Price Graphs
Active Listings, New Listings and Sales Graphs
At the end of 2006, listings had been steadily increasing, and sales were lower than the booming year of 2005. Everyone was on edge for expectations for 2007. The year surprised us all, with interest rates rising by one-quarter per cent and then being cut by that one-quarter in December. Steady, low interest rates breed consumer confidence and keep home ownership possible as increasing prices erode affordability. An increase in good-paying jobs, record-low unemployment, and migration and investment from out of the area all helped to push the market to record heights this past year.
What does 2008 hold? I see steady price increases, but on a slower, more moderate scale. As prices increase, affordability continues to be eroded. The Bank of Canada meets on Jan 22, with David Dodge expected to announce a cut in interest rates as his final duty before stepping down as governor. The continued diversification of the local economy, with more high-tech jobs and the decline in tourism from the U.S. being replaced with domestic and international visitors, will drive migration to this corner of the country and keeps our market on sound financial footing.
Sorry, bubble-blowers, there just isn’t one here to burst.
As expected, the surprisingly busy November numbers reflect a continued strong market.
December 3, 2007
The Victoria area real estate market continued to show exceptional strength last month with strong sales and record average prices for single family homes and townhomes. There were 623 sales through the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in November, up from the 571 sales in the same month a year ago. There were 708 sales in October of this year.
Victoria Real Estate Board President, Bev McIvor, noted that 16 sales of over $1 million pushed the average price of single family homes in Greater Victoria to a new record high of $596,586. “As always, it’s important to note that high end sales have a significant impact on the average price and that the median, or mid-range price, was considerably lower at $510,000.” McIvor noted there were also three sales over $1 million on the Gulf Islands last month and that the average price of all townhomes sold also reached a new record high of $473,758. “The high demand and robust prices show continued strong consumer confidence in the market,” added McIvor.
The six-month average for single family homes was $576,230. The average price of all condominiums sold in November was $311,844; the average for the last six months was $324,255. The median was again lower at $292,000. The six month average of all townhomes sold last month was $411,262. The median price was $421,750.
MLS® sales last month included 335 single family homes, 179 condominiums, 63 townhomes and 14 manufactured homes.
There were 3,196 properties listed for sale on the MLS® system at the end of last month, up slightly from the 3,158 properties in the same month a year ago.
Summary Report and Graphs
Monthly Sales Summary
Average Selling Price Graphs
Active Listings, New Listings and Sales Graphs
News Release from the BC Real Estate Association:
For immediate release
Home Prices Rise Modestly in Vancouver and Victoria Vancouver, BC – November 21, 2007. British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports residential sales volume on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC climbed 23.5 per cent to $3.40 billion in October, compared to the same month last year. Residential unit sales increased 12.8 per cent to 7,358 units during the same period. The average MLS® residential price hit $462,912, up 9.5 per cent from October 2006.*
“While home sales continue at a brisk pace, prices in Vancouver and Victoria are climbing at a more moderate rate,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. Compared to October 2006, the average sales price increased 7.8 per cent in both markets. Fraser Valley and Chilliwack prices climbed 6.2 and 6.3 per cent, respectively, during the same period. “Eroding affordability is providing less upward pressure on home prices in both Victoria and the Lower Mainland, as many first-time buyers no longer have the financial wherewithal to bid up prices,” added Muir.
In contrast to the South Coast’s major urban areas, home prices in the interior and northern markets continue a rapid ascent. “The Okanagan, Kamloops and Kootenay markets are benefiting from strong demand from retiree, investor and recreation buyers,” noted Muir. “Abundant natural amenities and relatively low prices are drawing considerable attention from empty nesters around the province and across the country.”
“Housing markets in the north that are receiving new investment in resource extraction and transportation are performing well,” added Muir. “However, sluggish US demand for softwood lumber is impacting housing demand in many communities.” The average sales price of a home in the BC Northern Real Estate Board area rose 11.3 per cent last month compared to October 2006. In the Northern Lights Real Estate Board area, the average home sales price climbed 18.5 per cent during the same period.For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, follow this link: www.bcrea.bc.ca/news_room/2007-10.pdf .
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