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Posts tagged ‘BCREA’

B.C. Housing Market Spring Forecast

Expect sales volume to ease, prices to increase more slowly

BCREA Logo

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) has released its semi-yearly housing market forecast for the province. Despite economic troubles elsewhere in the country, B.C.’s economy is expected to remain strong and to outpace many other areas in Canada in terms of growth through 2009.

Provincial sales will dip to 93,800 in 2008 (a 9% drop) and 92,000 in 2009 (a further 2% drop). Eroding affordability and weaker economic growth are cited as reasons for the expected decline. Still, interprovincial and international migration will continue to underpin demand for housing in B.C., with individuals drawn to our province by robust job growth, climate, and amenities. The average residential price in B.C. is forecast ro increase 9 per cent to $479,000 this year, and a futher 4 per cent to $499,000 in 2009.

Regionally, BCREA predicts that Victoria MLS® sales will fall to 7800 units, a decline of 7 per cent from last year’s second-highest-on-record 8403 sales. Sales will remain above the ten-year average of 6750 units. The report notes that 12,000 jobs were created in the Victoria area in the first quarter of 2008. As I’ve said before, as our area diversifies its economy beyond government, military, and tourism, more and more people will continue to move here, attracted by competitive salaries and our Island way of life. The report forecasts an overall 10 per cent increase in prices this year, but notes that most of that growth has already occurred, and to expect single-digit growth for the rest of the year.

I think the most interesting prediction in the report is with housing starts. The report forecasts overall housing starts to drop 9 per cent this year (after a 6 per cent decline in 2007). Citing tight construction labour markets, higher credit costs, and trepidation on the part of developers, the BCREA feels that current new home inventories will be depleted, resulting in a higher level of construction activity in 2009 and 2010.

One thing to remember is that the BCREA’s report is based solely on MLS® data, and would not include sales of new homes by the developer’s private sales team, for example.

What do you think about the report? Comment below!

The full BCREA report can be found here.


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Home Prices Rise Modestly in Victoria, Vancouver: BCREA

News Release from the BC Real Estate Association:

For immediate release

Home Prices Rise Modestly in Vancouver and Victoria Vancouver, BC – November 21, 2007. British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports residential sales volume on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC climbed 23.5 per cent to $3.40 billion in October, compared to the same month last year. Residential unit sales increased 12.8 per cent to 7,358 units during the same period. The average MLS® residential price hit $462,912, up 9.5 per cent from October 2006.*

“While home sales continue at a brisk pace, prices in Vancouver and Victoria are climbing at a more moderate rate,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. Compared to October 2006, the average sales price increased 7.8 per cent in both markets. Fraser Valley and Chilliwack prices climbed 6.2 and 6.3 per cent, respectively, during the same period. “Eroding affordability is providing less upward pressure on home prices in both Victoria and the Lower Mainland, as many first-time buyers no longer have the financial wherewithal to bid up prices,” added Muir.

In contrast to the South Coast’s major urban areas, home prices in the interior and northern markets continue a rapid ascent. “The Okanagan, Kamloops and Kootenay markets are benefiting from strong demand from retiree, investor and recreation buyers,” noted Muir. “Abundant natural amenities and relatively low prices are drawing considerable attention from empty nesters around the province and across the country.”

“Housing markets in the north that are receiving new investment in resource extraction and transportation are performing well,” added Muir. “However, sluggish US demand for softwood lumber is impacting housing demand in many communities.” The average sales price of a home in the BC Northern Real Estate Board area rose 11.3 per cent last month compared to October 2006. In the Northern Lights Real Estate Board area, the average home sales price climbed 18.5 per cent during the same period.For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, follow this link: www.bcrea.bc.ca/news_room/2007-10.pdf .

BC Home Sales Increase In September

More good news from the BC Real Estate Association about market conditions. It seems that 2007 is looking more like 2005 than 2006. Continued strong numbers like this is great news for all involved in the housing market.

Vancouver, BC – October 18, 2007.

British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports residential sales volume on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC climbed 20 per cent to $3.42 billion in September, compared to the same month last year. Residential unit sales increased 6.8 per cent to 7,687 units during the same period. The average MLS® residential price reached $445,205, up 12.3 per cent from September 2006.

“Housing demand hasn’t let up after a record-breaking summer,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “While the number of homes for sale has increased since last year, the sales-to-active-listings ratio has remained unchanged. This means homebuyers are snapping up additional inventory at the same pace, and upward pressure on home prices is continuing.”

Strong economic conditions are underpinning BC home sales,” noted Muir. “Robust job growth, low unemployment and rising wages and salaries are bolstering consumer demand.” More than 70,000 jobs have been created in the province over the last year, while the unemployment rate hovers near an historic low. The average weekly wage in BC climbed 3.3 per cent in September, compared to the same month last year.

Year to date, MLS® dollar volume increased 18 per cent to $36 billion compared to the same period last year. Residential sales rose 4.9 per cent to 82,627 units, while the average residential price climbed 12.5 per cent to $436,062.

Tim Ayres

BC Homes Sales To Surpass 100,000 in 2007

BC Home Sales to Surpass 100,000
BCREA Fall Housing Forecast

Vancouver, BC – September 27, 2007. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its fall 2007 Housing Forecast today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) home sales are forecast to break the 100,000 unit mark for only the second time in history. BCREA forecasts that BC MLS® residential sales will hit 101,000 units this year, up 4 per cent from 2006. The highest number of MLS® sales in the province was recorded in 2005, when a total of 106,310 homes were sold. The ten-year average is just under 78,000 units.

“Exceptionally strong consumer demand over the summer months has changed the outlook for this year from declining home sales to the second highest on record,” said Cameron Muir, Chief Economist. “While eroding affordability is squeezing some potential buyers out of the market, the housing stock is increasingly diverse, providing a mix of home types that appeal to a wide consumer market.”

BC home prices are also on the rise. The average MLS® residential price is forecast to climb 12 per cent to $437,000 this year. “While home prices continue to face upward pressure, the rate of growth is expected to moderate,” added Muir. The BC average MLS® price increased 18 per cent last year, and is forecast to rise at a more modest 8 per cent in 2008.

BC housing starts are forecast to decline 7 per cent to 33,900 units in this year and a further 4 per cent to 33,000 units in 2008. While single detached housing starts are trending down, multiple housing starts are holding firm at 21,000 units this year. Multiple housing starts now comprise 62 per cent of all new residential construction activity in the province.

The BCREA Housing Forecast is a semi-annual publication produced in the spring and fall of each year. The report contains forecasts and analysis of the BC economy and housing markets, including detailed forecasts by home type of the province’s 12 real estate board areas.

A complete copy of BCREA’s Housing Forecast is available here: www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/forecasts/2007-09Forecast.pdf.

July 2007 Sets Record For BC Home Sales

Vancouver, BC – August 16, 2007. British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that residential sales volume on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC climbed 44 per cent to $4.66 billion in July, compared to the same month last year. Residential unit sales increased 25 per cent to 10,447 units during the same period, a record number of July transactions. The average MLS® residential price hit $446,386, up 15.2 per cent from July 2006.

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